I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.
that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.
so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.
these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can
actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.
That is ever the best summary to all the things going on in the market right now than I have ever seen.
A lot of new investors may not know how volatile the market is or how the whales can actually make the market drop to a huge extent just to shake the weak hands off.
One thing however they always forget to know is that these people know how to read emotions on the chart and they play on that since they have the upper hand anyway and anyone who falls into such trap as an investor will really have a lot of blame to push on themselves when the time comes.