this is a very long period up to this point the coin can see a 1 sotoshu, many people do not want to wait that long and go. might be back before the beginning of the launch of the coins, and maybe gone forever.
Perhaps you are also right. The price of course can go anywhere and nobody can precisely know where precisely. But can be on it and calculation goes. Many say that at big falling always weak hands are thrown sell coins. And someone at this moment buys much.