Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: 100,000 LN Nodes, $100,000 BTC price: 2021 prediction
by
cellard
on 07/04/2018, 15:25:16 UTC
Im just not so sure about Bitcoin being a viable store of value if we get permanent bad press about how the fees and the transactions are a mess for these wanting to transact. For us holders that us irrelevant, but you don't want that constant FUD on the mainstream media, so if LN solves that, it's better than nothing.

If it's not FUD about fees, it'll be FUD about something else. I'm not too worried. Bitcoin's phenomenal rally last year actually coincided with significantly rising fees. So I'm not convinced fees (or perception of fees) is a major barrier to price. In a bull market, FUD doesn't phase the market at all. As long as the fundamentals around Bitcoin's value storage properties remain intact, I think the long term trend will continue.

I also don't think LN will "solve" the problem per se. It's just one avenue to offload some transaction volume, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin operates best as a settlement layer. I quite like what @evoskuil said about that here:

Quote
As I pointed out in Utility Threshold Property, rising price excludes lower value transaction scenarios and improves use for larger value transactions. This is however not the same idea as, "undercutting the currency use case."

Bitcoin is perfectly non-scalable in terms of tx volume, and will remain so. No increase in hardware can increase tx volume. However it is perfectly scalable in value throughput. This makes it ideal as a settlement layer.

This is neither the same as a reserve currency, nor as a store of value. Bitcoin cannot exist primarily as either. It must be transacted by individuals to exist. Layering produces a non-reserve currency that requires individual participation in validation.

The problem is when you have guys with massive megaphones in the form of twitter such as Roger Ver, McAfee and others, they can move markets, specially in a young market like Bitcoin.

In mature markets you would expect people holding huge amounts to be very informed and not fall for the FUD, but in Bitcoin you can find complete idiots holding massive amounts, so FUD will be effective until the coins are distributed among smart, strong hands. Until that happens the highs and lows will continue being massive during mania phases. Im not sure how effective fee FUD is, but it's a factor.