Many things will drive it up.

• Edan Yago launches his Cryptocurrency-based Political Zone in a sensible part of South America [November]. Caribbean coast gets my vote; Guyana or Suriname. Its a free market city on leased land (~99 year) in a third world country.
• A large chain store accepting bitcoin in the western world.
• A mention of bitcoin in media in connection to crowdfunding of public goods.
• A mention of bitcoin in a major primary debate/ battle between the Tea Party Republicans and the rino's (republicans in name only).
• A positive mention of bitcoin in the 2014 election.
• Or a completely foolish attack on it by democrat member that is clearly lossing his seat and had not done any research.
• A third world country with a small population switching to bitcoin or creating an Altcoin to replace its failed currecy.

A few things can drive it down.

• Fincen or the FBI take down a mixer successfully.
• a Kidnap and ransom case with a bitcoin demand. Many noobs would not realise that because the block chains public the ransoms traceable. People would expect a knock on the door during the hunt. The anarchist would panic sell on a successful trace and arrest. People will call for a ban on bitcoin. It would come back up.
• The FBI goes insane and sells the confiscated silk road bitcoin and tiny prices in an attempt to kill the marker. That should fail but some will panic.

It should still end higher mid 2014 regardless of what happens.