I absolutely agree with you. I wasn't smart enough to realize it at the beginning of this year. I wanted to hold bitcoin and went with the third strategy, so now I lost like two thirds potentially. At the same time, there were other people who just sold at good price and then decided to buy when the price got really low. I wish I could do the same thing, but now is just too late. I guess, one learns on mistakes, so now I will still go with the third strategy till I am in zero and then I will switch to the second one.
The only problem with it, though, is that you can never be sure whether the price is going to go down. You can sell and the price will rise even more, so you'll regret it. I made this mistake once, when I bought ripple at $0.5 and sold at $1, while within a couple of weeks it cost $3.