you think that mining vendors will live to see BIGGER volumes than ever? WOW...
In terms of hashrate (and thus wafer starts)
Of course unit volumes will skyrocket, almost no one is even shipping 28nm asics yet, and current prices are at least an order of magnitude above marginal cost.
Dont tell me you thought the network was about to plateau at 5PH ?
Expect KnC maybe who already shipped ~3000 units.
Please make me understand your way of thinking. How do you expect someone to pay for NRE costs for 28nm asics and also sell miners very very cheap? I think a 28nm mask is around the sum of 1 mil $ (no ideea how much is it actually but i know it's expensive) and let's say you don't count any other cost then what company would make such an investment? How do you see such company's business plan?
a 28nm NRE is several million, plus the first wafer orders (and possibly the second order too if you want more in a reasonable time) plus the first batch of all the parts to make the box.. so you're talking minimum $5m to start production!
-- Jez