Your bands are converging at a spot that is higher than the most recent lows. So "the dump" as you call it will be higher than the most previous "dump"...according to your chart.

A better topic for discussion is what happens when the trading band narrows, converges to a single point? What are the triggers that drive the move after that convergence to be up...or down, because we're poised for a break out or a break through, but you're not talking about how we'll know if either is happening.