I'm pretty new myself, but I'm pretty sure I'm a faster-than-average learner.

Concerning the projected profitability of mining hardware, this little tool/site did an excellent job of helping me visualize the realities> http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/
So yes, the short answer is the way things are going now - if you want any hope of even breaking even within a year you need to start RIGHT NOW with some significant hash juice that you bought for as low a $/GH price you can possibly get (mining nonstop, and getting free electricity).  Unless of course BTC value TRIPLES.