Quite the spike up this morning in Bitcoin, and quite unexpected!

From the 6440 (Bitfinex) low set on April Fools’ 01-APR-2018, the Bitcoin market rallied 17% and then gave up 13% of those gains before trading sideways in a choppy 10-day affair. Today, the market broke out of that range and has thus far rallied 20%.

The April Fools’ rally from 6440 was expected to be in the range of approx 20%. However, with today’s spike, the rally peaked at almost 26% thus far.

Doesn’t appear to be a news driven price spike which is quite unusual. However, with waning sentiment and short interest at all-time highs; it appears the price spike has been exacerbated by a short-covering rally squeezing out bearish positions.

Despite the magnitude of the rally, the price action from the lows of 01-APR-2018 are still within the parameters of an ongoing b-wave with no structural change to the Elliott Wave model thus far.

Currently expecting any additional upside to be contained within approx 8132 which represents the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from 21-MAR to 01-APR.

7600 represents the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of the entire Bitcoin market; and so, taking out that price point on the daily close would be an initial sign to suggest fading bullish momentum.

Bitcoin remains overall bearish until 9200 is taken out to the upside.

Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:



The following two short positions have been closed at a net loss of 7.3%, ouch!