First time trading and winning is rare. People get experience by losing early in trading and that is true for every other persons. the first mistake will all trader make in start is they always get in when coin already pumped thinking it will pump more but then they get dumped on and they lose.
Winning is showing up or not it depends on the current situation of market , if it's going down, everywhere is red and you keep buying ? Yes you're surely loss, that's the terrible move because you don't think first before acting.
You can't know about the pump or dump also because it was doing in the secret way and all you can see is just the result of it not the progress.