Do you want me to draw you a picture?
Yes, please do.
Haha I love it when bitcoiners quantify things like this. Please explain how someone has a 30% chance of making 10x their investment.
Perhaps if you look at past history, that more than x% of all y consecutive months have gone up z time.
I don't know what numbers were used, but here are some x=50%, y=3, z=10.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&v=1&t=S&r=300&l=1