Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Reasons why Lightning Network will fail
by
d5000
on 16/04/2018, 18:27:09 UTC
Sorry, I overlooked that answer ...

The standard configuration for most non-technically-savvy users would be only one channel: most likely with an exchange that acts as my hub and connects to other sub-hubs, acting also as my "recharging station".
This centralized idea of LN makes at least much more sense than the decentralized version, to that much I agree. But people wanted bitcoin because of decentralization. If we go back to the model where big centralized banks are key in the whole system, will people still like bitcoin? Doesn't this go against the very core of what people look for in bitcoin?
I would not call it "centralized" but "multi-central". I think both models will co-exist: Technologically savvy people will try to use LN in the most decentralized way possible, while "non-techies" will follow the "easiest" way (using an exchange or online wallet service as "LN bank"). You're right that this isn't what the most optimist LN advocates want but I consider it more realistic than a totally-decentralized LN where the average user can't be sure to pay a high fee.
For advanced users the situation is different; they can try to open several channels in low-fee-periods, so they can route through the network using much smaller hubs and thus use it in a much more decentralized fashion.

Even with this "hybrid"/"multi-central" topology LN is much better and more decentralized than the methods most users follow today  - using Coinbase or even an exchange to deposit your coins. There will be many types of hubs, not only commercial providers but also "altruist" hubs of libertarian Bitcoin early adopters, mini-hubs for groups of friends, etc.
Quote
But even in that version, everytime you 'recharge' your 'bank' you still would need to pay the huge on-chain fee.
Well, the "LN dreamers'" vision is that the fees would stay relatively low because most people would use LN instead of on-chain transactions. I think with LN enabled and an user base of less than ~50 million people fees won't go as high as in late 2017. But if the user base grows beyond that mark and the Bitcoin community want fees to stay low, then it should also consider sidechains as alternative scaling method because LN + on-chain alone wouldn't be enough imho.