And that over-simplification is why people are pushing back on your "explanation". Your explanation relies on someone having $7000 cash sitting someplace that could readily be converted into BTC or purchase a miner at equal cost in terms of time-value of money. Many people purchased a miner with a credit card at or near zero percent interest, where as getting a cash advance would have entailed a 20% or higher interest rate (typical of the cards I've seen, YMMV) in addition to a upfront fee. In addition, the miner itself retains substantial residual value for quite some time (if the ASICMiner gear is any indication) which is not being added to the equation (capitalization versus straight expensing of equipment for you accountant types out there) which further muddies the water of overall profitability. Especially when tax considerations are taken into account with same-year full expensing of business-related computer equipment being allowed for small businesses.
True I will give that one to you. People that are using credit to invest in BTC do not have option one. Although if I thought a Jupiter would make 95% or less BTC than I could buy directly, then I would use credit to purchase a TV/etc and sell it for BTC or cash and invest directly in bitcoin so I assume that anybody investing in a miner expects it to make more BTC than they could buy but your point still stands.
So, yes, in hindsight buying BTC would have been a *better* investment if one was to measure the progress of BTC mined as of RIGHT now versus selling bought BTC...but it hardly means that buying a miner was a *bad* investment considering that the miners have yet to reach their full potential of mining production AND they may yet have some to-be-determined residual value even after that which can be re-captured. While buying BTC will likely prove to have been the most optimal investment unless for some strange reason the diff increases start to level out....the margin of how much better is still very much in question at this point.
I agree that we do not know the total yield of our Jupiters and I think mine might have a positive BTC ROI since it was a day 2 but it's looking worse and worse with every difficulty jump. I'm not sure why everybody keeps talking about hindsite. It's simply a matter of measuring the BTC and fiat ROI to learn how you did. If I make a prediction that it's better to invest in a miner than directly in BTC then I will see if my prediction was accurate or not so I can become a better investor in the future based on empirical evidence and avoid similar miscalculations. People that ignore that information will continue to make the same mistake of investing in less BTC via mining than they could directly (unless of course they are investing borrowed money
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