bounty choice is entirely luck and gamble. Unfortunately, the results may sometimes undergo disappointed. No investment should be made without examining the entire project. for example; team, social media addresses, supporters,white paper, the ideas ...
I do not think all the ICOs are luck only. At least maximum you will be able to get the half the value than the estimated value on the pre sale time. I always go with the bounties with the managers point of view.
To invest the ICO means we need to read the white paper and developer team information you will get the better understand about the project with this mate.