limit of 200 upgrade units. so is this 28TH total? is my math right if each unot is 140 Gh/s ?
28 Th/s would be a drop in a bucket...
Agreed. The Nov preorders will be two orders of magnitude more. It is likely the "left overs". They ordered so many hosts, cases, etc, used their inventory of parts to build the Sept/Oct/Nov orders and they came up with 200 extra boards. Sell off the lot. Why not? The value of ASICs goes down over time. Why wait for the next batch just sell them off for less?
So we're looking at another 2-3 PH/s? That's not actually that bad..
I would say maybe a 3 PH/s seems likely (4 PH/s if KNC's Nov batch is towards the high end and others can pull together another Petahash.
CT and HF are not shipping until Dec so for Nov it really just is BFL, Avalon, AsicMiner, Bitfury and all of those are pretty opaque but I can't see a massive surprise. It just takes more and more haspower to move the difficulty (i.e. if BFL was shipping 0.2 PH/s per month and doubled that it would still "only" be 0.4 PH/s). For Dec, HF first Batch is "small" looking like 0.5 PH/s (funny how half a PH/s is now small). Cointerra is looking like 2 PH/s and HF second batch (and upgrades) is another 2 PH/s. Dec really comes down to how much of that ships in Dec and how much slips to Jan.
You can start penciling in what you think 2013 is going to end. Unless someone has a surprise waiting ....