Yeah but if you are going to use daily charts you need to use mtgox, because tradehill data only goes back like 30 days. If you see the full picture on the long term chart, you see a parabolic run up from zero to 30, followed by a blowoff top, a triangle breakdown, and a pause with a downward drift we are in right now before the next leg which will probably be down to sub 10.
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I think you could be right if I remember correctly what I read somewhere, that miners can sell for $3 and still make a profit. If that is right, it means the price will go down to just around $3
Another huge problem is early miners sitting at huge amounts of bitcoins which they can also sell for $3 and still make a profit.
In the long term 2-3 years when miners cannot sell to cheap and early adopters have sold, price will increase. But right now its slowly going to go down the coming months. Unless...Unless there are lots of new investors, which is not impossible considering it has just started to appear in china. However if the markets go down, it will attract less investors.