I revised my bitcoin logistic adoption price analysis charts to combine four possible scenarios on one chart ..
red - assume a $5,000,000 maximum bitcoin price when fully adopted by financial speculators
orange - $1,000,000
green - $100,000
blue - $40,000
I also re-fit each case to more accurately pass through the final price history data point. It is clear now that the exponential portion of the logistic curve, i.e. the straight line on the log chart, does not predict the maximum price. Here are the corresponding price targets summarized ...
The key result of this analysis is that we should not expect the current exponential growth of bitcoin prices to last more than 36-48 months - even under the most bullish imaginable scenario. Buy sooner rather than later is my obvious conclusion.
The shared spreadsheet containing commentary, calculations and charts can be viewed, or copy/edited, at ...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTnc
red - assume a $5,000,000 maximum bitcoin price when fully adopted by financial speculators
orange - $1,000,000
green - $100,000
blue - $40,000
I also re-fit each case to more accurately pass through the final price history data point. It is clear now that the exponential portion of the logistic curve, i.e. the straight line on the log chart, does not predict the maximum price. Here are the corresponding price targets summarized ...
The key result of this analysis is that we should not expect the current exponential growth of bitcoin prices to last more than 36-48 months - even under the most bullish imaginable scenario. Buy sooner rather than later is my obvious conclusion.
The shared spreadsheet containing commentary, calculations and charts can be viewed, or copy/edited, at ...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTnc
Hey SlipperySlope,
Great to see you back. Immediately again great analyses. Thanks so much for sharing again.
I have also sold too many coins and was taken by surprise with this new relaunch into new highs.
I thought your rational evaluation at the time indicating lower prices was sound.
What was wrong with the line you drew at the time you think?
Also, I agree we can expect an s-curve, but I don't see the first curve on your chart above. The period where growth is increasing year over year. What period do you think that was?