i'd say the bitfinex situation is multi-faceted and we haven't heard the end of it. in time, i think the collapse of bitfinex is inevitable, but timing it would be impossible.

the US government is obviously watching them closely. the subpoenas are enough to establish that. the fact that tether severed relations with friedman rather than proceeding with the audit is telling---it doesn't mean they are insolvent, but it suggests they won't risk giving account access to auditors who then might be subpoenaed by regulators. i believe that's what this is all about.

bitfinex has done a very good job keeping their money hidden, and that's the main reason regulators would bide their time. the feds made a massive blunder last year when they took down btc-e but couldn't recover any funds.

another situation which has not been resolved is the €400M seizure from a tiny polish bank tied to bitfinex. the thing about tether is this: it only takes a couple of these seizures to make bitfinex insolvent. don't get overconfident that it can't happen. you should definitely limit the funds you keep on bitfinex or in USDT.