I'm not too sure bitcoins fluctuations rely to heavily on the acceptance of governments. I think BTC in its essence is outside of the current financial system, this is not to say that it can be a success without institutions because on ramps and off ramps are vital but I can see the price reaching 100k without the influx or approval of major governments. It has a real use and value if you look past the bad publicity. Once at 100k I think the price will stabilise enough to be a decent alternative currency.