I opt for a crash. Price is purely dictated by chinese market. There was no adoption, no major company support and still the price trippled in just a month. China goes up and sudenly all other markets follow without thought. If they decide to sell, for whatever reason, whole world will sell in panic.
Coinbase and mtgox are both above btcchina, I'm not sure how they're following china. If anything currently china is following the usd/btc.