You honestly think that FC is going to take the accumulated ~6,000,000 usd and just sit on it for 2 years? Even if he spend half of that on current gen hardware he could easily maintain 10%. What do you mean the roi is not stable and they might decide to stop paying divs? Where are you getting this misleading info from? Never has AM not payed divs and/or pull BS at any point.
FC in the interview announced that he plans to have gen3 28nm chips by feb if I remember correctly and gen2 40nm will come before that. All of which will be used for both sales and solo immserion cooled mining.
I don't "think" he would, but there's always a chance: he said he got the funds for 2 yrs of lab time, which as far as I know does not generate revenue - this assumes AM does not add to their mining farm. Asicminer was supposed to get 500TH shipped for October, I'm not sure if those are the cubes, but they could be: one nice dividend then what? You're speculating about what one "could" do with funds but I am just going along with what appears to be a sample scenario: friedcat saves enough to support staff/research for two years and fab time, while mining and hardware revenues continue to dwindle down (see past history).
We were promised a new chip gen for sept/October too, and it didn't arrive. What if the same thing happened again for the next gen? It is important to understand risks at this point.
The ROI is calculated depending on share price and dividend. What's AM's % of the network? Graph that over the last 6 months. If in a year AM has dropped the divs by half then your ROI will have dropped by about half too (if you buy at current).
How many dividends has AAPL paid? GOOG? A company gives out dividends at its discretion, be happy that ASICminer does, but you should see the value of the company beyond dividends, especially with the current push to sell hardware. Just like friedcat held back some divs the past few months, nothing prevents him from withholding ALL of if if he feels he needs to.