even if I have a vision in my head, I become reluctant to say my vision out loud because there are too many contingencies that end up lowering the probability of that outcome by a considerable amount
Let me see if I understand you. You seem to be saying that, should you inform others as to your envisioned strategy, others will use this knowledge to trade against you, thereby affecting the actual market price, and dooming your strategy to failure. Is that what I am reading?
