Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend
by
greenlion
on 19/11/2013, 19:27:41 UTC
Just to inject some sanity into this discussion and take things back to basics, the notion of producing a simple trendline projecting future prices is 100% grounded in the technicals (and this analysis while interesting is basically the most primitive technical analysis possible). It's important to also consider the fact that technical analysis is not a crystal ball for any kind of long-term predictions, it's a tool for the trader to react to the graph and hopefully execute the correct trade.

The moment it becomes apparent that the Bitcoin price is driven more by fundamentals, this entire mode of analysis goes out the window. There is a very compelling argument right now that the recent price movement is driven by fundamentals because of China's recent en masse entry to the buyers market.

Fitting to a trendline has no relationship to these fundamentals, and if we are to believe that there is something technologically-transformative or revolutionary about Bitcoin, then the fundamentals are the dominant factor in driving long-term pricing. This is not pork bellies, barrels of oil, or frozen concentrated orange juice.