I have adjusted my assessment of the exchange rate and its near-term development as follows (originally posted in Wall Observer):
I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:
- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation
Two bubbles in 2013
Who could have thought...
Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.
- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation
Two bubbles in 2013
Who could have thought...Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.