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Board Securities
Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]
by
minerpart
on 20/11/2013, 19:13:37 UTC
dunno, everything seems right on schedule to me...



Yeah looks great knybe, but look a bit closer, the chart says $100 a BTC right now would be within the (median) rising channel. So we could be $500 over-valued right now according to your 'everything looks to be on schedule' chart.

We are at $600 right now. I predict sub $400 within a few days where it will stay in the 3-400 range for an extended period. There will be no recovery to the 900 level this year.

Last time we had a bubble when it shot up outside of the established rising channel to  $260 we waited 6 full months for a return to that level. I don't think we will need to wait 6months for a return to the recent high but 2-4 months is likely.

Median channels on a log-scale chart are not of much use for short-term investment decisions - especially when the volatility spikes are up to 80% of total value of the security. They give a false sense of price movement and when we are thinking of securing short-term gains the log-scale will give you very limited/no cues as to when to sell.

These are the real-world trend channels you need to look at to see where spot price is likely to go based on the current underlying trend - 2 possibilities to chose from. Both say SELL NOW to lock-in profit or be prepared to wait 2months+ for a return to these levels.





NB no prediction is cast in stone - but this is the most likely future over the short-term based on recent price action. IMO