@vlad2vlad
I believe that you are very good at recognising patterns that most others miss, I also am good at this. It's our gift. One thing I have had to learn is that my reasoning may be flawless, but I don't (and can't) know all of the possible factors involved in any one instance so I cannot predict anything with 100% accuracy even if at times it may seem as though I had. The ego trap that I have learned to avoid is this; just because I was 70%, 80%, 90% or even 99.999-% correct, I must not forget that I was not 100% correct and that my accuracy will always vary. Not to mention that although either of us might be near 100% correct in the direction of travel, we cannot know what else may intersect the event within the same space/time and throw our prediction way off course. The other thing that I have learned is that things tend not to be quite as bad (or no way near as bad [or good]) as I thought they would be.
There are definitely forces at work that would like to thwart Bitcoin and they are powerful forces indeed. Yet, from my observation of human history and behavior, there is either a reaction or a response to perceived threats: 1. Reaction. Fight or flight - if we can't run we will fight, first; to discourage - Next, if that fails, to disable - Next, if that fails, to control - Next, if that fails, to kill- Next, if that fails, submit (if possible) 2. Respond: Consciously adapt to a new reality - We will try to; dominate - manipulate - leverage - restrict - bargain or otherwise use to our advantage
There is nothing that any government can effectively do to stop Bitcoin, there are too many ways to get around restrictions and regulations. That is not to say that a government cannot disrupt or retard the spread, usage or development of Btcoin, but ultimately anything they try will fail (so long as there are enough willing participants to keep Bitcoin alive.) So for the first possible action (the Reaction), they will eventually have to submit. Submission does not preclude the second possible action (Respond.) Two of possible responses (dominate and restrict) are nearly as unlikely as any of the Reactions. Manipulation is the most likely average response but that will have limited scope. The most likely responses will be the three remaining items, namely leverage, bargaining and using as an advantage. Governments will mostly be restricted to manipulation and bargaining. Now, for the real and greatest threat to Bitcoins decentralised network, we must consider the Rockefellers and corporate and financial industries of the world. Any number of them have the financial wherewithal to make all the money ever spent on Bitcoin mining hardware look like someones cookie jar savings in comparison. If the largest bank in the world (or one of the wealthiest people) thought that Bitcoin was encroaching into their profit generating engine they could easily out spend all of use and manufacture their own mining hardware at 1/3 the cost and make it impossible for anyone other than equally wealthy institutions to ever mine again. Plus these industries would dominate in transaction fees as well.
But even this can be a failing strategy. We, as in the Bitcoin community, can simply refuse to use the same blockchain that those large institutions use. The trick would be to do a better advertising campaign than any government or industry and to not allow regulators to scare use into excepting terms that are either not in our best interest or give the regulators an unjust amount of control.
I do not see that having companies register their Bitcoin dealings with a government being any bigger of a problem than it already is. I do have tremendous trepidations over any such institution demanding that the average individual do so as well.
Most of the negative things that could happen can be avoided or corrected at some point, as long as the majority of us remain true to the faith.
-JuenoMT