From a fundamental point of view, a taper would push US treasury yields higher along with the US dollar. The combination of higher yields and a stronger dollar should pull the US stock market lower. Because bitcoin generally follows the overall trend of the US stock market, bitcoin should continue lower as well in this scenario. Although a lot of you guys believe that bitcoin is somehow different and excluded from overall risk trends, if the overall speculative environment turns bearish (the US stock market is an excellent barometer for risk-taking), bitcoin is going to suffer because bitcoin is undeniably a risky investment which people flee from during bear markets.
Is this perspective still true if Chinese speculators maintain a higher overall demand than US speculators? Or would the souring of the US outlook undermine the Chinese speculation as well?