Post
Topic
Board Beginners & Help
Re: Buy low/ sell high or buy and hold?
by
CliffordM
on 23/11/2013, 11:13:27 UTC
Trading is one of the hardest professions on the planet.  Hard because there is never enough good data to make a decision on, and hard because it is psychologically very tough.  Your brain will tell you it's seen enough data, and it's time to buy or sell.

By your own admission, you ask 'will I make MORE money' ?   This contains the implicit assumption that you will make money with either of your two strategies. 

If you read the net, you will find endless people drawing technical charts telling you why the price will go up / down next.  I wouldn't trust them very far.  I wouldn't trust them.  Or your own eyes.

You will also find that those that have made money, shout louder than those who have lost it.  Hell, if you read the net, you will find enough stories about playing roulette to believe you can win.

My advice : Download as much data as you can, build some simple models and fit them.  In particular try to compute confidence intervals on your parameters.  Try to use as few parameters as possible . 2 or 3 max.   Consider any rule like 'don't buy on friday' a parameter.

Test your model.  Add in realistic transaction costs.  If your resulting profit-and-loss stream time series differs much from a random walk then you might be onto something.

Personally : I believe you can make money out of bitcoin.  But I wouldn't trade it.  Too damn expensive.