I agree with the general trendline you've laid out, but the flipside is that these deviations can be quite large within the trend, and they tend to go into overdrive before they calm down. I think your 2-3K then crash to 1K (or crash to $500 and then level out above 1K for a few months) scenario is more a little bit more likely than an exhaustion and consolidation in the mid-hundreds. But maybe that rhymes too closely with April 2013. China pulling a 2011 could bring the price to more like 5K before crashing down to 1K. There's just a lot going on right now, and it felt like a perfect storm a few weeks ago. Now it seems the storm just keeps happening and we're consolidating, returning to simple exponential growth within the short-term trend, rather than double-exponential as we had last week. So it could be the eye of this perfect storm.

On the other hand, just a little bad news and a few whale cash-outs could douse most of the bullish news sentiment such as the Richard Branson thing and newly favorable media. It would be seen in hindsight as "bubble indicators."

I'm thinking 65% chance of a moonshoot from here, 35% chance of a cooldown to low-to-mid-hundreds.