Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling ~~1240~~ 1320 shares at an auction start price of ~~.29~~ .4 each (as of the first auction, now it's .29). I think that's something like ~~0.75% of publicly traded shares~~ 10% of Havelock? ~~There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.~~

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and ~~1240~~ 1320 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

It's funny seeing you counting the wrong numbers to the right result, Vycid. Cheesy

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

Tried to.

the auction is indeed for 1320, oops.

Net public shares are in the neighborhood of 164,000, with a total of 400,000 including those held by BitFountain, so 0.75% was correct.

Quote from: User705 on November 25, 2013, 03:31:13 AM

Lots of assumptions there. You assume you can win the auction at a lower price then you sell on havelock and then assume the deal closes even if you do win.

Slippage is not really an assumption, and I think Seb is considered trustworthy. It seems to me like the clear best course of action, maybe it's not that clear to others.