Your OP starts with "The long term trend for bitcoin value is contraction, not expansion". You then precede to give evidence that has nothing to do with the long term.
I'm not predicting the long term success of bitcoin I'm telling you that the market value relative to other currencies will continue to shrink until it reaches it's highest sustainable point somewhere below $10 and above $0.01. You're just twisting my observations relative to your own worthless antithetical agenda.
Bitcoin can be "successful" by a number of measures, yet still have little to no value in real currencies.
You're asserting this, but with what evidence? The long term contraction/expansion of Bitcoin depends on the developments in the Bitcoin economy over the next couple of years, not press coverage and market moves over its first couple of months. What evidence for
long term contraction is there?