I agree with your points. However, it's easier said that done mate, especially in this market. You can say that you can follow those points in order to make it big and "effectively" trade, but then again, there are so many other aspects to consider which can actually affect how your venture would play out. This market is unique in the sense that there can be so many other things affecting its value and how it would continue on as an asset compared to other currency market systems. I think one aspect to at least ensure an effective trade is by choosing the coin that have more chances to gain and checking out the market in terms of how beneficial it can be to your coins of choice.