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Board Service Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game
by
organofcorti
on 26/11/2013, 10:22:19 UTC
Shouldn't that be "add 1/p to x"? Otherwise you induce drift and the mean hitting time will no longer be infinite.

Nah, dooglus' model is a random walk starting at the origin where you step left (winning a bet) with probability 1-p and step right (losing a bet) with probability p. The walk ends if you end up 1 step left of the origin (= you won a roll at your base bet, at which point the strategy resets) or if you end up at N steps left of the origin (you've busted).


Shouldn't that be "add 1/p to x"? Otherwise you induce drift and the mean hitting time will no longer be infinite.

No, see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=242962.msg3687257#msg3687257

I should have read your example a bit more closely. Anyway, I don't have an analytical solution, but there are examples online somewhere. It is a Markov chain thing.

You can use the inverse gaussian distribution make an continuous approximation model, which is what I've done when I've modelled "busting times" in the past - it agrees quite well with simulations.