Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness.
by
BitThink
on 27/11/2013, 09:46:05 UTC

Buying property, you are betting on the politics, economy, security, and many other things on the location of your property. You have to worry about the earthquake, fire, flood, storm, hurricane, or typhoon.

Same with Bitcoin, e.g. most people suggest this big boom is linked to China (politics) and when there's a security breach, or a big arrest (like mt gox fueled crashes in the past, or SR arrest) the price goes down.

Buying stock, you are betting on the market, competitors, the leadership of the CEO, and many others. Moreover, you have to worry about insider-trading and fraud in accounting.

Same with Bitcoin, you're betting there's going to be a market for oyu to sell your coins to, you're betting your competitors don't do a huge dump before you do. The fraud an insider trading is even more of a risk with Bitcoin (look at how many exchange have disappeared, look at Fontas on BTC-e)

Buying gold or silver, you have to find a safe place to store them and then you need to find a safe place to sell if you want cash.

Same with Bitcoin, you have to find a safe exchange, preferably in a stable region with good political ties to whatever country your in. Then you have to get your bank to be okay with you transferring in a massive chunk of fiat from Bitcoin (I know some banks in hte UK wouldn't be comfy with that)

I believe now you will agree with me why I said investing on BTC is the safest and the easiest.

That said, I'm not saying it is risk-free. It is highly risky, but investing on anything is risky, and holding fiat without investing is even more risky. Smiley

Betting in a regulated controlled market is far safer than Bitcoin. As someone pointed out, there's nothing stopping allt he various middlemen here running with your money. In a lot of cases, you've not got a leg to stand on with regards to legal recourse in the Bitcoin world. Don't kid yourself, Bitcoin is just as, if not more risky than other proven tried and tested investment options.

I am afraid I did not express myself clear enough so forgive me to repeat myself here.

Compared with property and stock, bitcoin is more like gold. That means 1 BTC is always 1 BTC, it will never collapse, burnt, bankrupt, or diluted. So it just like gold, can be a very good way to keep value. In short, you buy BTC and keep them in paper wallet, and after couple of years, its value will not affected by all the inflations, no matter how much paper money has been printed.

I am talking about the value, not the price measured by fiat. The value of BTC only disappears when it is no long used to keep value, just like the silver, which is almost just a useful metal now. If BTC is replaced by a better crypto-currency, then it's value may goes to 0. Otherwise, it is always there. No one will deny using crypto-currency to keep value is a great idea, and once it is accepted by the mainstream it is not reversible.

As we know, one of the big value of bitcoin is its scarce. There's only 21m coins, and that's the key for it to keep its value. Therefore, we buy some when they are still affordable and then keep them to hedge all the fiat inflation risks. That's the investment I mentioned. In this sense, holding BTC is safer and easier than holding stocks, properties, or gold.

Most of what you said above, however, are related to price and trading. That is completely short term and manipulated by whales. Concentrating on the price is speculation, not investment, and is not related to what I am talking.

One more thing to add:
In stead of asking 'is the price of bitcoin sustainable', how about asking 'is the value of fiat sustainable'? I am afraid the latter has much more obvious answer.