well if you have those many rich people competing with one another, that 2% adoption rate looks mighty conservative, especially when BTC is booming into a difference universe.
What % of those rich people do you think actually own gold? (for the record I have no idea). If we knew that, we might get a better idea for what an appropriate adoption % might be for bitcoin.
EDIT: this link estimates 1-2% of americans own gold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qoj-s-Hhfgsis your assumption that whatever %2 of peoples wealth from gold would be transferred to BTC? i don't think that's enough.. there would be a huge bullish fervor and greed will lead the way.
at the top of the food chain, people participate in the rat race to have the most money.. "just because they can." at some point when you have that much money, your assets are just like toys and you want to have the biggest one in town.