you cant use last year to pridict this year price mouvement ,too many variable have changed(last year the average joe didnt knew other crypto existed beside bitcoin ,this year we saw celeberties tweeting about alt,gouverment regulating crypto,too many news manupilation,big player "wallstreet" going in crypto ,...)

 i am pessimistic about this year for the very same raison that make you think that the price will go up ,too money people think that the summer boom of 2017 will repeat ,which give an opportunity to big whales to make a killing betting against the commun thought ,i mean they can keep the market stagenent for years (they can afford that) then when you least expected BOOM the summer of 2017 repeat ,these millionaire invest and wait for years to make billion ( the average person cant wait that long he will eventually sell to them cheap which already happened)