Look further back, prior to the speculation spike caused by media events, 1 BTC was hovering around US$9. So if the Silkroad and other events did not bring Bitcoin into the limelight, US$9 would likely had be the "real" value of 1 BTC. What we're seeing now, in my non-financially trained opinion, is merely market correction to the correct valuation, quite possibly $9~$10 before it will climb up again.