PenAndPaper: You are not wrong in what you said, Technical analysis is tricky and doesn't always work. I really believe in the double top + MACD-Histogram divergence. I use it to trade options on stocks with high success rates. It is not the double top alone, but a specific set up with more constraints. The MACD-Histogram divergence is very significant and makes this double top a rare thing and that's why I posted it. I don't like to post a lot even though I'm not so new here as you might think from the number of posts I have.
Please note that I posted this chart before the news and before a "proper" double top has formed. A "proper" double top is only confirmed when the right side of the down trend happened and this is shown on the second image I posted here.
Regarding the cause of the downtrend, I believe the news from China is just an excuse or a small trigger. I believe mass behavior is better predicted than individual people's behavior and you can see changes in the general mood in the charts. People were euphoric when I posted the chart and most threads here discussed the exact timing of bitcoin reaching $2000.
Technical analysis is not an exact science, you can not make controlled experiments and you certainly can not repeat them. These are inherent limitations in the social world we live in and trading is a social activity.
oda.krell: I appreciate your support, thank you. On a personal note, even when I see the chart turning bearish I sold only a small part of my account since I still have fiat coming in every month from my business and in the long run I'm extremely bullish about bitcoin. I buy bitcoin on a regular schedule every month and maybe I will increase next month's wire transfer.
I try to stay focused on the large picture and not be caught up in the minute by minute or even hour by hour fluctuations. That is why I look at long term charts. They are the easiest to apply technical analysis to.
MikeyVeez: I took a screenshot of bitcoinwisdom.com and manipulated it to remove all the noise and emphasize what I wanted with some drawings.
Keep up the nice discussion my friends,
Ami