Arguing with you two clowns (cscape & bassclef) is like debating with my cat.
Unless you have something intelligent to say please spare us your nonsense.
I've been debating on an intellectual level with some of the users here, and you two come and spoil the party.
Oh please, I asked some very basic questions. We can agree the China news was negative, but how do you know exactly what the price will do?
I'm sorry I included your nickname at first by mistake, I corrected it afterwards.
You can't predict with 100% certainty. But with a high enough level of certainty (above 90% or so I'd say) you make a gain in the long term. The reason why this works in a new and volatile market (and not necessarily in a mature market) is because the moves are so big (40 - 50%) that the gains you make by having a high enough certainty would offset the losses you make by missing it few times and incurring transaction costs.
Edit: The reason why I know the Bitcoin market will move so drastically is simply because for the past 4 years it did so. It is true for nearly all new markets. I don't see why it would've been different this time (although it could've acted differently this time, but odds were saying otherwise). I was merely playing on odds. Off-course it's risky I never said it wasn't. But my argument is the odds were in my strategy's favor so why not take the chance. Life is about taking risks, and it's all about benefiting when the odds are in your favor. That's all I'm saying.