OP updated to the best chart (by tonico).
I did some very interesting analysis re:the similarities of relative overvaluation in April and now. In April we were "only" about 3.2x the then current trendline when the bubble popped.
Now the high value has been similarly 3.3x (at ATH).
If the bubbles compare, expect $400s to be visited not only briefly but repeatedly.
But should we take into consideration that there are more people involved, or that own BTC now and that will cause less volatility so the price should not drop as much? I think that has already been shown in this last "crash" or "correction."
Of course, it is probably wise to consider the "worst case scenario" and past behavior could predict future behavior. I just think that we might be entering some uncharted territory now.