Me again!
How convinced are you btc will fail? How can you be sure?
If there is a nonzero chance if something happening then it is possible for you to figure out ev (which you can adjust to fit your bias)
I'm not sure what set of circumstances gives you an outcome where the best (most rational) action us not to buy any btc? How do you come to the conclusion that there is zero risk holding no btc?
I never said I'm certain Btc will fail (although it might).
But the conclusion of my argument would be something along these lines: There's less risk of not owning any Bitcoin, then to do, when the price of each Btc is close to 1,000$. Given all the reasons I have mentioned. Actually this statement might not be true for me at all time. But it's true for me today.
Also might not have been the case when the price was 10 or 20$ a piece.
Problem is that if the price now goes back down to 10 or 20$ a Bitcoin, it might not be as attractive an investment as when it first happened (on its way up, couple of months ago). Again there's a full analysis as to why this might be the case (in my own POV, not based on any economic theory but based on my own analysis).