2017 has being one of the phenomenal years for the people who had stayed invested till the last. It has given some of the unexpected rise during the last couple of months in 2017. Though the start of Jan 2018 was good the market kept moving up but during the later half the market started to sin and back to 10k levels at present.
How do you predict the 2018 year to be for bitcoin. Will it rise back like 2017 and if yes than what could lead to those rise and if no than what factors could be accounted for the downfall?
Bitcoin has now been trading sideways at 8-10K for nearly 6 months. I believe there will be another bull-market for bitcoin that will take it to new a ATH significantly above the 20K in Dec 17, but the question is will that come in Oct-Dec 18 like it did last year, or happen in 2019? The history of the bitcoin price can give us some prediction of this, although using the past to project what might happen in the future can never be truly predictive of what will happen!
This is a log-graph I constructed recently of bitcoins price from 2010 to early 2018 -
https://imgur.com/gallery/9iF3t - with bitcoins long term steady linear growth line shown and extrapolated out over the next few years. The shorter term growth cycles of bitcoins price are also shown as the red dots (growth) and green dots (sideways movement of bitcoins price). As you can see there have been 5 consecutive periods of 12-24 months of red dots with upgrowth in bitcoins price, followed by a 12-18 month period of green dots showing a sideways movement of bitcoins price before the next upward growth period. We are currently 6 months into an expected 12-18 month period of sideways movement of bitcoins price at ~10K, and history suggests the next upward growth period will start at the end of this year and take bitcoin to 50K in 2019 as per its long term growth line!
And the reasons that I believe bitcoins long term parabolic growth will continue over the next 5-10 years? I believe the later generation blockchains and protocols that are being developed will allow development of dApps that will slowly replace the current massive centralised companies and businesses we all use over the next 10-15 years, in a third technology revolution of the world. And Im sure that bitcoin will continue to be the most important cryptocurrency in this new world for payments and as an increasingly important store of value, given its effectiveness and security in use so far and the improvements to it being made by its 200 or so dedicated developers and its recognition as a brand by >50% of people in the world, and therefore given its limited and fixed supply bitcoins value will continue to increase exponentially as it has for the last 8 years as its ownership and use by people increases from the current <1% of people who own or use it to 10% ownership and use over the next 5-10 years. Great for all the current very early adopters!