Thank you for your work and also the no BS, honest assessment.
IMHO, there is an error in your working when you assume that a 50% increase in hash-rate will not change profits much. A 50% increase will decrease overall profitability by 33% per hash. So the estimate on Tribus at $41 per card will actually be $28.
Also in your working I think you have split the profit half-way between DNR (33) and KEYCO(46). Whereas their network hash-rate is 439 MH/S and 113 MH/s respectively, and hence the actual projection should $36, further adjusted down by 33% to $24.
To me its clear the once mainstream mining oriented FPGA card are available, that will be the future as regards to non-ASIC space.