However, you are mortal and catastrophically overconfident in your ability to predict chaotic systems.
That is just plain misunderstanding. I know that probabilities add to 1 and I should not invest more than I can afford to lose

It is exactly the ordinary people who gamble with all their wealth daily (by taking a mortgage, for example). They are taking a serious financial risk. I am never taking any financial risk.
By being risk-free I have been able to pursue the opportunities and grow our family wealth at about 51% APR over 11 years.