Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
However, you are mortal and catastrophically overconfident in your ability to predict chaotic systems.
That is just plain misunderstanding. I know that probabilities add to 1 and I should not invest more than I can afford to lose
It is exactly the ordinary people who gamble with all their wealth daily (by taking a mortgage, for example). They are taking a serious financial risk. I am never taking any financial risk. By being risk-free I have been able to pursue the opportunities and grow our family wealth at about 51% APR over 11 years.
There is no earthly way to make 51% APR without the assumption of substantial risk. The best hedge funds don't manage 20%. Hell, trying to make 0% APR is still associated with nonzero risk. I think it'd do you some good to acknowledge the role luck has clearly played for you.
Anyway, we're in agreement about the gambling aspect. The difference - sometimes subtle - between gambling and investing is often lost on people, especially around here. It is never wise to have 100% of one's wealth invested in any one thing, even an apparent black swan such as Bitcoin. The outsize fraction of my portfolio that Bitcoin presently constitutes is largely of Bitcoin's own doing (and my ASICMiner derivatives trading).
I think it would be good to remind people here bent on making a quick buck - if you are gambling, there is always a house. If you aren't sure who the house is, one thing is clear: it isn't you.