To me it doesn't matter how much money ico raise or what they are doing what matter the most is for an ICO to stay alive within five years and to be used as many people as possible. If they however fail to do such thing then they fail. Many ICOs are chaining the capital without the need for it. Many are acquiring more money because they can come back with five years and check if those you mentioned are still here and if people actually use them. Other than that saying now is not accurate assumption many ICOs failed from the last year and many will fail this year.