Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model
by
AnonyMint
on 13/12/2013, 05:30:46 UTC
Coinbase reports that 80% of wallets are buy and hold, the remaining 20% are used for transactions. That supports the idea that when fully adopted, the majority of bitcoin will be held as a deflating store of value, and the smaller portion held as working capital by transacting entities. I do not distinguish intrinsic value aside from the contextual market price. Please enlighten me with regard to the two main uses of bitcoin as partitioned above.

This:

Lets look at it psychologically. When the BTC price stops rising because the capital that can and will be moved into Bitcoin has slowed (or peaked), then those who own $100,000 to $millions (which probably includes all those who own $10,000+ of BTC now) are going to want to deploy their capital productively. Unless Bitcoin is as widely accepted as the dollar, then they will find their opportunities to invest BTC in businesses without it being converted to dollars will be limited and it will prevent them from optimizing their investments.

So capital will leave BTC to the point that each person holds in BTC what is reasonable for the opportunities of medium-of-exchange that are available.
Since BTC price is rising so fast, we are looking at market cap saturation no latter than 2016 ($1m per BTC x 15m coins = $15 trillion) unless the general public is selling assets to buy Bitcoin, but more likely 2014 or 2015. That is not enough time to develop a wide enough medium-of-exchange ecosystem.

Also, Bitcoin has no utility (except perhaps as the government coin).