I came to the same conclusion. I do think we are in for a long bear market, and we won't see a new ATH by end of 2018. We might by end of 2019/2020. Who knows, we could be wrong but I highly doubt it. Something that I have been pondering is that BTC has had significantly more exposure during 2017 than it has any prior year. Now that everyone knows about Bitcoin and many people bought it, how will this affect BTC in the long term? Surely this bear market won't be similar to prior ones because of how much more exposure Bitcoin has received.
Who cares any price below ATH is a cheap price. We already experienced it many times. Even if we go full bear for the next 2-3 years, as soon as we go above 20k$ (and i know we will) you'll make at least %100 profits if you buy from these prices. Those who bought from $20k however will have to wait for $50k and its not impossible. Will probably see $100k+ after the halvening.
I agree, the Halvening will truly be an exciting event. I remember the last one, it seems like it takes a few months for the shock of a lower inflation rate to hit the market. If there are no crazy long block times or anything from now until 2020, then the halvening should happen in may 2020. End of 2020 is probably when we would see another ATH. I definitely do think $100k/coin is possible and not unreasonable. That would peg BTCs market cap at around $2 trillion which is only 1/4 of golds market cap.