If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.
You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.
I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.
This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.
I should clarify: a system dynamics model won't help you with your daytrading, but it WILL provide the sort of signals rpietila is seeking about bitcoins being overbought/oversold.