To sort out a good project from a bad one you should do your own analysis. Look at how much the project is already on the market, is there a finished product or not, is this a team, how many competitors. Then you can take a look at what the project is about sites with ratings. This will be enough to conclude.
I fully agree with you! You need your own analysis of the ICO and, accordingly, the bounty campaign. Of course, will not be easy to carry out such an analysis for the first time. But, in the end, it is getting invaluable experience.